Tricky forecast brings possible rain

First, we have drier air on our doorstep. In Albany, the dew points are in the 50s and skies are partly sunny. That dry is slowly making its way east and will be here later today and this evening. The leading edge of the dry air is marked by a cold front. The front is moving at a snail’s pace so the exact timing of its passage isn’t easily predicted.

Being on the warm side of the front, for much of the day, means we will experience another hot and humid afternoon with highs well into the 80s. As the front pushes through, there could be a quick pop-up shower, but the chances are low it will happen.

The front will pass offshore this evening and all areas will enjoy a much more comfortable night. I can’t remember the last time I forecast anyone to have temperatures fall into the 50s, but that is exactly what we have for Thursday morning. Even Boston will see low temperatures in the lower 60s.

My next forecast challenge comes quickly tomorrow and Friday. This slow moving front is going to stop and get stuck just offshore. Fronts that get stuck are perfect breeding grounds for clouds and precipitation. Areas of both will ride northward along the front. The image below shows what the radar could look like, according to one computer Model, later tomorrow evening. Notice all the rain just off the entire Atlantic coast. Any slight deviation westward pulls all that rain into eastern New England. This is a real possibility and will have to be watched carefully. If we end up with rain, it would tomorrow afternoon into Friday afternoon. The best chance for rain is of course closer to the coast. Temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler.

Along with the chance for rain will come more cloudiness. Neither Thursday nor Friday will feature bright blue skies, but at least it won’t be hot and humid. It just seems like we can’t get a string of nice days this summer. It’s either too hot, too humid, too cloudy or too wet.

There will be a quick period of dry air for Saturday when there will be some sunshine and pleasantly warm temperatures. I don’t expect much humidity on that day either. Sunday another front approaches from the west and brings a few more clouds and the chance for a shower or storm. Highs will be back in the lower 80s.

Gardening this week

Pests in the garden are a problem for any grower. There are now better and better organic controls for gardeners that allow good control without the harsh chemicals. Check out the video below and see how I am controlling some of the pests in my own garden this year.

I'll be updating the details of the weather on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.